Our World, Our Lives, Our Choice
What Will Your Future Look Like?
The next eight years are profoundly important for determining whether or not humans survive the climate crisis in the future. This shared global challenge requires prompt and determined action by all leaders and citizens. If we want today’s children and future generations to be able to live safe and healthy lives, we need to make sure we have solutions in place and fully operational as soon as possible, ideally by 2030. That’s only eight summers away. Eight birthdays. Eight trips around the sun.
Why 2030?
According to the World Scientists Warning into Action paper, “carbon and heat trapped in our oceans and atmosphere already guarantees that we will exceed 1.5C. High temperatures and sea levels will likely persist for millennia or longer. We can mitigate the severity of weather events to some extent if we employ significant climate restoration methods before 2030.”
The United Nations predicts that even if we continue to pursue the current action plan for climate change, global temperature levels could reach as high as 2.7℃ by the end of this century. If we do nothing, scientists forecast that global temperatures could rise by as much as 4°C by the year 2100.
Stopping climate change is no longer an option. With bold, coordinated efforts, however, the risks it poses to both humans and the environment can be mitigated.
What does 1.5 degrees mean?
What would happen if we took bold action? What if we could look future generations in the eyes and honestly say that we made our best effort to mollify the effects of climate change?
According to an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, if we limit the increase to 1.5°C we allow time for innovative solutions to emerge. The report also says:
With momentous measures in place by 2030, 420 million fewer people worldwide are exposed to extreme heatwaves. People in the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia and South America have less risk of drought. 50% fewer people are affected by climate-induced water stress. There is less flooding in areas of high latitude like Canada, Alaska, Greenland, Northern Europe and Asia. Sea levels rise 0.1m less, meaning that 10.4 million people can remain in their homes. Coral reefs are in danger but not gone completely. Food supply and food security are less compromised.
Most importantly, this scenario gives people time to meet the challenges of global heating and devise plans to adapt to it.
What would 2.7 degrees look like?
Keeping in mind that temperature increases will occur both on land and in water, let’s take a little tour around the world to see the effects of a 2.7℃ increase in global temperature.
Sydney, Australia is severely affected by increased drought and wildfires. There is minimal water for irrigation and water prices have soared. The Great Barrier reef is dead, altering the lifestyle of nearly half a billion people who rely on it in some way.
In Washington D.C, ground-level ozone is causing major respiratory illnesses. Storm surges and rising sea levels cause the two main riverbanks to flood low-level areas. Wildfires are common.
In Tokyo, cyclones are more frequent and stronger than ever before. Fishermen must train for new careers because their industry has been decimated.
Madrid is updating infrastructure to help protect the city against raging cyclones, which are now the rule, rather than the exception.
In places like Nigeria, Canada, and the UK, where farming is a principal industry, unpredictable cycles of drought and flooding have a disastrous effect on food supply.
Brazil is facing an energy crisis. Their hydroelectric plants are unable to run efficiently due to low water levels in lakes due to droughts.
This is not futuristic science fiction. Senior scientists predict that these are the conditions we will see if we do not dramatically reduce global warming by 2030.
What will we see at 3 or 4 degrees?
If we do nothing about climate change, there is a very strong chance that global land and sea temperature will rise to 4℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The book, The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Change Crisis, outlines a blunt description of our world with a 4℃ temperature increase:
The air is hot and polluted. Increased levels of ground-level ozone make it difficult to breathe and fresh air is getting harder to find. Carbon dioxide and methane levels continue to increase due to thawing permafrost. Because of wildfires and logging, there are fewer forests left to absorb excess greenhouse gases. Storms, hurricanes, and cyclones are commonplace. In the oceans, increased CO2 results in a lower pH. Marine ecosystems, including fisheries and the economies dependent on them, are annihilated. People who live inland are affected by drought and wildfires, which are now more prevalent. Extreme heatwaves, especially in places like India, are devastating.
The United Nations warns that a 3℃ increase would already cause major repercussions for coastal areas in regards to rising sea levels, and provides insight into how our world will be affected:
Cities in Asia will be the most at risk. Shanghai is completely submerged, losing many of its landmarks and much of the downtown area. Important hubs for commercial trade like Osaka, Japan and Alexandria, Egypt are now under water. Miami and the bottom third of Florida are uninhabitable, displacing 7 million people. Rio de Janeiro has lost its famous beaches and its airport, resulting in a huge blow to its important tourist industry.
In this world, there are conflicts over water, food, and many other resources.
The R’s Required for Global Recovery
So, what do we do with this knowledge? The World Scientists’ Warning into Action paper recommends an economic transformation, with the goal to halve CO2 emissions by 2030 and move to net zero emissions by 2050.
Suggested actions involve:
Redoubling of our decarbonization commitments - on every scale, from household to large government organizations, efforts to decrease the carbon footprint should be intensified.
Relocalization - we need to work towards regional self-reliance and focus on restoring efficient levels of local production of food and consumer goods.
Redesigning and Re-engineering - city infrastructure must become more sustainable.
Rewilding and Restoring - we must rectify environmental damage and make space in ecosystems, not just for humans, but for all living things.
Humans are resilient and resolute. Our evolutionary success is due to the fact that we are cooperative problem-solvers. We can’t eliminate climate change, but with a collective concentrated effort, we can gain some control over it.
Now is your chance to support and collaborate with the world's top scientists. Get involved with something that will reach global leaders directly. All scientists are welcome and invited to sign the “Warning into Action” paper, including all those with a postgraduate degree in natural, political, social, medical/health, engineering, economic, educational, or behavioural sciences.
Previous warnings by scientists have largely been ignored. Now there is no option, but for world governments and citizens to take responsibility, work together, and be agents of change. Today’s children and future generations are depending on us. Let’s show them that we can be cooperative, innovative, ethical problem-solvers. Together we can save our future!